BBC — Now that the referendum results are out and Leave got a 52/48 % majority is time for David Cameron to decide what to do next. One of his options would be to put the question to parliament banking on a majority deciding to remain.
This is because parliament is sovereign and the results of this particular referendum are not legally binding on the UK government.
There has even been the argument, made by some in the Brexit camp, that the mere threat of departure following the vote to leave could smooth the way to a better deal for Britain which could then be put to voters in a second referendum on EU membership.
In any case,quitting the EU is not an automatic process – it has to be negotiated with the remaining members. These negotiations are meant to be completed within two years but the European Parliament has a veto over any new agreement formalising the relationship between the UK and the EU.
Leave campaigners Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have said there is no need to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty immediately. Only after extensive informal talks with other EU members and the European Commission will it become clear whether and how to trigger Article 50, Vote Leave has said.
The idea would be to allow other EU leaders the time to realise they need a “friendly” trade deal with the UK to continue exporting their consumer goods into the British market without tariffs.
Also Britain could, technically, ignore all of this, the Vote Leave campaign says, and simply write the EU out of its laws, although that wouldn’t make future negotiations any easier.
As only one part of one country has ever left the European Community – Greenland more than 30 years ago we would be in unchartered territory here.
So, depending on when the prime minister triggers Article 50, perhaps at some time in late summer, or early autumn 2016, negotiations would begin in Brussels on the terms of its exit and the nature of the UK’s subsequent relationship with the EU.
This would involve not only rescinding the European Communities Act, which gives primacy to EU law in the UK, but also sifting through an estimated 80,000 pages of EU agreements, which have been enacted over the past five decades to decide which will be repealed, amended or retained – a process which Parliament will want to oversee.
After two years, the UK would no longer be bound by existing EU Treaties unless both it and the other 27 states agree unanimously to extend the process of negotiations.
Parliament will not stay silent
The majority of Britain’s 650 MPs are in favour of Britain staying in the EU and while they will have to respect the will of the British people, they will not be silent bystanders.
There have already been moves among the 450 or so MPs who want to stay in the EU, across the Labour, Conservative, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Green parties, to keep the UK in the single market in any exit negotiations.
This would mean Britain would have to keep its borders open to EU workers and continue paying into EU coffers.
They say it would be legitimate for MPs to do this because the Leave campaign has refused to spell out what trading relationship it wants the UK to have with the EU in the future – and it would demonstrate the sovereignty of Parliament the Leavers were so keen to restore.
Vote Leave wants legislation to pave the way for Britain’s formal exit by the next election due in 2020, the centrepiece of which would be repeal of the European Communities Act 1972, the brief piece of legislation that brought the country into the European Economic Community as it was then known.
Then there is the question of who will do the negotiating for Britain. The most senior members of the government – David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne, Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Theresa May – are all Remain supporters.
The Leave side has said that it would be happy for the prime minister and senior civil servants – including Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood – to stay put to lead the negotiations although they would expect senior Leave figures to play a very prominent role. They have also called for figures from other parties, business, law and civil society to be drafted in to the negotiating team.
Even if Mr Cameron stays, expect a major shake-up of the Cabinet with the likes of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson getting promotions. Mr Gove has been tipped as a potential deputy prime minister and lead Cabinet negotiator and the former mayor could also expect a plum job.
