BBC — The UK may have voted on 23 June to leave the European Union but it is not yet clear what the country’s path to Brexit will actually mean.
“Not a single serious economist does not think Brexit will be bad for the economy”, George Osborne famously said before the referendum, citing the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others.
Last week however, the Office for Nation Statistic (ONS) said the Brexit vote had had “no major effect” on the economy, the OECD said “markets have since stabilised”, and the IMF acknowledged the UK had “surprised on the upside” back in September.
Specifically, the OECD claimed that the UK was likely to experience 1.8 per cent growth in 2016, up from their 0.1 per cent prediction made before the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union.
The evidence that the economy was thriving started building in August, when it was revealed the FTSE had risen by 8 per cent since the vote and UK retailers experience their strongest sales in six months.
A survey of the UK’s manufacturing industry also showed steady growth, as did Britain’s services industry, which makes up the vast majority of the economy, giving what Reuters called the “clearest sign yet” that the economy was “bouncing back”.
Numerous individual construction firms and corporations have also said they’ve experienced positive growth since the vote. However, one of the most notable statements of growth came from M&C Saatchi, the advertising agency enlisted to run the unsuccessful Remain campaign.
According to The Telegraph, the London-based ad agency posted a 14 per cent lift in sales to £100.2 million in the six months to June 30th, while pre-tax profits surged 28 per cent to £10.7 million.
David Kershaw, the firm’s chief executive, said: “We have not seen any impact as a result of the Brexit decision, other than a positive foreign currency impact.”
Currency
One beneficiary of cheaper sterling has been the UK’s own tourism sector, as a weaker pound makes Britain a cheaper destination for overseas tourists. The travel analytics firm ForwardKeys says flight bookings to the UK rose 7.1% after the vote.
Hate crime
There’s clear evidence of a spike in hate crime since the 23 June ballot. Reported hate crime rose by 57% in the four days after the referendum, police say.
Some 3,219 hate crimes and incidents – alleged to have taken place between 16-30 June – were reported to police forces across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, according to revised figures published by the National Police Chiefs’ Council. This represented a 37% increase compared with the same period in 2015.
Housing market
Uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote failed to hit house buying in the UK, figures suggest, with a slight rise in transactions in August.
A total of 109,630 properties were bought in the UK during the month, a very slight rise on a year earlier, HM Revenue and Customs data showed.
However, the number of homes for sale is at near 30-year lows, which is why the pace of house price growth has remained broadly stable. It’s a view backed up by Bank of England figures showing the number of new mortgages being approved by banks and building societies falling to its lowest for a year and a half in July.
Jobs
There was a slight fall in UK unemployment to 1.63 million between May and July which shows there is yet to be a “Brexit effect” on the jobs market, according to economists.
The unemployment rate was 4.9%, down from 5.5% a year ago and little changed from August’s rate, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows.
